Predicting and retrodicting intelligence between childhood and old age in the 6-Day Sample of the Scottish Mental Survey 1947.

In studies of cognitive ageing it is useful and important to know how stable are the individual differences in cognitive ability from childhood to older age, and also to be able to estimate (retrodict) prior cognitive ability differences from those in older age. Here we contribute to these aims with new data from a follow-up study of the 6-Day Sample of the Scottish Mental Survey of 1947 (original N = 1208). The sample had cognitive, educational, social, and occupational data collected almost annually from age 11 to 27 years. Whereas previous long-term follow-up studies of the Scottish mental surveys are based upon group-administered cognitive tests at a mean age of 11 years, the present sample each had an individually-administered revised Binet test. We traced them for vital status in older age, and some agreed to take several mental tests at age 77 years (N = 131). The National Adult Reading Test at age 77 correlated .72 with the Terman-Merrill revision of the Binet Test at age 11. Adding the Moray House Test No. 12 score from age 11 and educational information took the multiple R to .81 between youth and older age. The equivalent multiple R for fluid general intelligence was .57. When the NART from age 77 was the independent variable (retrodictor) along with educational attainment, the multiple R with the Terman-Merrill IQ at age 11 was .75. No previous studies of the stability of intelligence from childhood to old age, or of the power of the NART to retrodict prior intelligence, have had individually-administered IQ data from youth. About two-thirds, at least, of the variation in verbal ability in old age can be captured by cognitive and educational information from youth. Non-verbal ability is less well predicted. A short test of pronunciation-the NART-and brief educational information can capture well over half of the variation in IQ scores obtained 66 years earlier

Realising health data linkage from a researcher’s perspective: following up the 6-Day Sample of the Scottish Mental Survey 1947

Health and wellbeing in old age are influenced by genetic, environmental and social factors throughout the life course. At present, few longitudinal studies offer information from childhood through to old age. Data linkage between multiple sources of health data enhances the value of existing longitudinal data. Regulations governing access to personal data for health research exist to protect the privacy and confidentiality of data on behalf of the individual. This paper outlines the process of obtaining permission for data linkage from a researchers’ perspective, using a case study which offers an unusual opportunity to understand life course influences such as socio-economic status, childhood deprivation and measured intelligence on health and wellbeing in old age in an entire year-of-birth population. The Scottish Mental Survey 1947 (SMS1947, n = 70,805) has childhood intelligence data from individuals born in 1936 and attending schools in Scotland in June 1947. Representative sub-groups of the SMS1947 provided additional sociological information. The 6-Day Sample (n = 1,208), born on 6 days of 1936, were followed up for 16 years to age 27. Their younger siblings also took an intelligence test and were followed up for several years. Our team’s planned research on the SMS1947 falls into two distinct parts. The first is a revival of the 6-Day Sample study involving tracing Sample members and inviting survivors to a follow-up study. The second part aims to carry out linkage between existing data on the SMS1947, its sub-groups, and the younger siblings, and morbidity and mortality data from central databases in Scotland and in England and Wales. We conclude by offering some recommendations for simplifying the process of obtaining permission to access linked health data, and place these into the context of the shifting landscape of data linkage in the UK and beyond

How to...obtain accurate objective measurements of health at a distance

Large scale longitudinal studies are an excellent tool for increasing our understanding of the aetiology of health and disease. Obtaining accurate measures of health status is important in these kinds of studies. However, self-report measures of health are subject to bias and obtaining objective health measures can be costly. This paper outlines the process and challenges of designing a home testing kit to enable participants to obtain objective health measures themselves, using the example of a new cohort study, the 6-Day Sample

Genetic contributions to stability and change in intelligence from childhood to old age

Understanding the determinants of healthy mental ageing is a priority for society today1,2. So far, we know that intelligence differences show high stability from childhood to old age3,4 and there are estimates of the genetic contribution to intelligence at different ages5,6. However, attempts to discover whether genetic causes contribute to differences in cognitive ageing have been relatively uninformative7–10. Here we provide an estimate of the genetic and environmental contributions to stability and change in intelligence across most of the human lifetime. We used genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from 1,940 unrelated individuals whose intelligence was measured in childhood (age 11 years) and again in old age (age 65, 70 or 79 years)11,12. We use a statistical method that allows genetic (co)variance to be estimated from SNP data on unrelated individuals13–17. We estimate that causal genetic variants in linkage disequilibrium with common SNPs account for 0.24 of the variation in cognitive ability change from childhood to old age. Using bivariate analysis, we estimate a genetic correlation between intelligence at age 11 years and in old age of 0.62. These estimates, derived from rarely available data on lifetime cognitive measures, warrant the search for genetic causes of cognitive stability and change

Personality stability from age 14 to age 77 years.

There is evidence for differential stability in personality trait differences, even over decades. The authors used data from a sample of the Scottish Mental Survey, 1947 to study personality stability from childhood to older age. The 6-Day Sample (N = 1,208) were rated on six personality characteristics by their teachers at around age 14. In 2012, the authors traced as many of these participants as possible and invited them to take part in a follow-up study. Those who agreed (N = 174) completed a questionnaire booklet at age 77 years, which included rating themselves and asking someone who knew them well to rate them on the same 6 characteristics on which they were rated in adolescence. Each set of 6 ratings was reduced to the same single underlying factor, denoted dependability, a trait comparable to conscientiousness. Participants' and others' older-age personality characteristic ratings were moderately correlated with each other, and with other measures of personality and wellbeing, but correlations suggested no significant stability of any of the 6 characteristics or their underlying factor, dependability, over the 63-year interval. However, a more complex model, controlling rater effects, indicated significant 63-year stability of 1 personality characteristic, Stability of Moods, and near-significant stability of another, Conscientiousness. Results suggest that lifelong differential stability of personality is generally quite low, but that some aspects of personality in older age may relate to personality in childhood. (PsycINFO Database Recor

The Lothian Birth Cohort 1936: a study to examine influences on cognitive ageing from age 11 to age 70 and beyond

BACKGROUND: Cognitive ageing is a major burden for society and a major influence in lowering people's independence and quality of life. It is the most feared aspect of ageing. There are large individual differences in age-related cognitive changes. Seeking the determinants of cognitive ageing is a research priority. A limitation of many studies is the lack of a sufficiently long period between cognitive assessments to examine determinants. Here, the aim is to examine influences on cognitive ageing between childhood and old age. METHODS/DESIGN: The study is designed as a follow-up cohort study. The participants comprise surviving members of the Scottish Mental Survey of 1947 (SMS1947; N = 70,805) who reside in the Edinburgh area (Lothian) of Scotland. The SMS1947 applied a valid test of general intelligence to all children born in 1936 and attending Scottish schools in June 1947. A total of 1091 participants make up the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936. They undertook: a medical interview and examination; physical fitness testing; extensive cognitive testing (reasoning, memory, speed of information processing, and executive function); personality, quality of life and other psycho-social questionnaires; and a food frequency questionnaire. They have taken the same mental ability test (the Moray House Test No. 12) at age 11 and age 70. They provided blood samples for DNA extraction and testing and other biomarker analyses. Here we describe the background and aims of the study, the recruitment procedures and details of numbers tested, and the details of all examinations. DISCUSSION: The principal strength of this cohort is the rarely captured phenotype of lifetime cognitive change. There is additional rich information to examine the determinants of individual differences in this lifetime cognitive change. This protocol report is important in alerting other researchers to the data available in the cohort

Childhood Body Weight in Relation to Cause-Specific Mortality: 67 Year Follow-up of Participants in the 1947 Scottish Mental Survey

The association between childhood body weight and adult health has been little-examined, and findings are inconsistent. In a representative sample of the Scottish nation (the Scottish Mental Survey of 1947), we examined the association between body mass index measured at 11 years of age and future cause-specific mortality by age 77 years. In this cohort study, a maximum of 67 years of follow-up of 3839 study members gave rise to 1568 deaths (758 from cardiovascular disease, 610 from any malignancy). After adjustment for covariates, there was some evidence of a relation between elevated childhood body mass index and rates of mortality ascribed to all-causes (hazard ratio per 1 SD increase in body mass index; 95% confidence interval: 1.09; 1.03, 1.14), cardiovascular disease (1.09; 1.01, 1.17), all cancers combined (1.12; 1.03, 1.21), smoking-related cancers (1.13; 1.03, 1.25), and breast cancer in women (1.27; 1.04, 1.56). In conclusion, we provide further observational evidence for the need for weight control measures in youth

Correction: The Attitudes to Ageing Questionnaire: Mokken Scaling Analysis

This is the final version. Available from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this record

Pre-pandemic cognitive function and COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: cohort study

BACKGROUND: Whereas several predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy have been reported, the role of cognitive function is largely unknown. Accordingly, our objective was to evaluate the association between scores from an array of cognitive function tests and self-reported vaccine hesitancy after the announcement of the successful testing of the first COVID-19 vaccine (Oxford University/AstraZeneca). METHODS: We used individual-level data from a pandemic-focused study ('COVID Survey'), a prospective cohort study nested within United Kingdom Understanding Society ('Main Survey'). In the week immediately following the announcement of successful testing of the first efficacious inoculation (November/December 2020), data on vaccine intentionality were collected in 11,740 individuals (6702 women) aged 16-95 years. Pre-pandemic scores on general cognitive function, ascertained from a battery of six tests, were captured in 2011/12 wave of the Main Survey. Study members self-reported their intention to take up a vaccination in the COVID-19 Survey. RESULTS: Of the study sample, 17.2% (N = 1842) indicated they were hesitant about having the vaccine. After adjustment for age, sex, and ethnicity, study members with a lower baseline cognition score were markedly more likely to be vaccine hesitant (odds ratio per standard deviation lower score in cognition; 95% confidence interval: 1.76; 1.62, 1.90). Adjustment for mental and physical health plus household shielding status had no impact on these results, whereas controlling for educational attainment led to partial attenuation but the probability of hesitancy was still elevated (1.52; 1.37, 1.67). There was a linear association for vaccine hesitancy across the full range of cognition scores (p for trend: p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Erroneous social media reports might have complicated personal decision-making, leading to people with lower cognitive ability being vaccine-hesitant. With individuals with lower cognition also experiencing higher rates of COVID-19 in studies conducted prior to vaccine distribution, these new findings are suggestive of a potential additional disease burden